股票价格波动的信息渠道影响研究——基于媒体报道和分析师预测的视角

文章手工收集、整理了2006-2015年中国A股上市公司的媒体报道倾向数据，实证研究了媒体报道正向倾向与分析师乐观预测偏差对上市公司负收益偏态系数的影响。研究表明，虽然媒体报道正向倾向、分析师乐观预测均分别对上市公司股价负收益偏态系数产生显著的负向影响，但是两者的交互项对股价负收益偏态系数的影响则是显著为正，即当媒体报道正面倾向与分析师乐观预测两者共同作用时，将会触发"信息过度关注偏差"机制，从而降低了上市公司股票收益。文章研究还发现，媒体报道、分析师预测和"信息过度关注偏差"机制的作用强度，在市场化程度高地区要明显大于市场化程度低地区，可能的原因是市场化程度高地区的企业更加容易被媒体报道和分析师关注，进而产生更强的关注效应。     

复杂担保经济后果与作用路径研究

本文以2008-2019年A股上市公司为样本,研究了参与复杂担保对上市公司产生的经济后果,并探讨了引发这些经济后果的路径机制和影响因素.研究发现:首先,参与复杂担保会对上市公司个体的公司价值和盈利能力产生显著的负向影响,且复杂担保内担保链条越多或上市公司在复杂担保内居中程度越高时,负向影响越大.因股东资金占用导致的投资不足在复杂担保影响公司价值和盈利能力的过程中发挥了部分中介效应.其次,复杂担保极易产生负向效应的多向和无序传播,形成风险传染,具体表现为系统内公司之间价值和盈利变动的连带反应,且较差的信息质量以及关联担保行为都会进一步加剧风险传染,产生这种现象的原因是风险冲击后复杂担保内其他上市公司风险承担水平降低、融资约束程度增加.本文从新的视角深化了担保后果及其作用路径的相关研究,对于深入理解复杂担保行为本质,以及如何警惕担保异象、防范担保风险具有重要意义.     

私家车从事网约车运营保险争议分析及应对

私家车辆从事网约车载客行为而引起了大量纠纷,结合法院判决和其中事实判断涉及诸多争议。私家车“变脸”网约车进行载客不一定都使得危险显著增加,有些只是兼职网约车司机,风险程度不符合危险显著增加的三个特性,重要性、持续性和未曾估价性。网约车载客与交通事故发生不是必然的因果关系,只是路线不确定和行驶频率增加造成事故风险增加,让保险公司承担全部责任显然违反合同和不符合法律规定,但保险公司直接拒赔商业险也有违对价平衡原则,显失公允。而采用比例原则较为合理,对于网约车这一新兴事物,相关的法律应该既是规制法也是促进法。横向考察域外有较为成熟的网约车保险,UBI车险可以考虑引入,将“人”的因素引入车险定价,具体而言,将考虑事故发生时被保险车辆的状态,以确定保险公司是否承担赔偿责任。     

谈电力垄断行业的改革

电力垄断行业的改革对于我国电力行业的发展具有重要意义。这就要求相关部门人员从多个方面考虑,实现水电等可再生能源的发展,提高能源的利用效率,以此来为我国社会发展创造一个崭新的电力行业。     

中国金融市场风险与宏观经济景气之间的关联动态研究

为了揭示中国金融体系与宏观经济运行的系列结构性变化及其关联动态,文章分别基于货币流动性宽松程度、剩余收益模型以及银行资产负债表,对中国货币市场、股票市场与银行体系的风险进行了测度和评估;并在分析上述三个金融子市场风险变动规律及其传递机制的基础上,运用时变参数向量自回归模型实证检验了各金融市场风险与宏观经济景气之间的关联动态。研究发现:在金融危机爆发前后,不同金融市场风险之间的传递关系发生了重要转变,并且与宏观经济景气变动之间的交互影响也存在显著的阶段性差异,呈现出"良性循环"与"恶性螺旋"的非对称性切换。这些研究为中国新时期积极转变宏观经济调控政策决策机制、创新宏观经济调控与金融监管模式,实现宏观经济与金融体系的双重稳定提供了有益的经验依据与政策启示。     

China's Free Trade Ports: Effective Action Against the Threat of De‐globalization

With sluggish external demand and increasing trade protectionism by the USA and the European Union, China is facing severe challenges in implementing its deeper, ongoing reforms. To respond actively to such challenges, the Communist Party of China's 19th National Congress proposed to “promote a new pattern of all‐round opening up.” In particular, the establishment of free trade ports is considered an important means to realize deeper integration with the world economy. This paper discusses the background, the motivation, the possible challenges as well as a feasible path for the successful implementation of free trade ports in China. Based on the international experience, the construction of free trade ports in China requires freer trade in goods, high mobility of talent and free capital flow.     

Analyst Firm Coverage and Forecast Accuracy: The Effect of Regulation Fair Disclosure

In this study, we revisit the relationship between analyst firm coverage and forecast accuracy. In contrast to the proposed negative association in Clement (1999) owing to the portfolio complexity effect, we hypothesize an ‘economy‐of‐scale effect’ that is likely to dominate when analysts rely mostly on public information. In support of the latter effect, we find a positive association between firm coverage and forecast accuracy after the enactment of Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD), which substantially reduces the flow of material private information to analysts. Such a result survives a battery of robustness analyses. We further show that, in the post‐Reg FD period, covering more firms increases an analyst's probability of being selected as a star analyst in the subsequent year. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of the information environment in shaping the economic link between an analyst's firm coverage and forecast accuracy.     

Optimal insurance in the presence of reinsurance

This paper studies an optimal insurance and reinsurance design problem among three agents: policyholder, insurer, and reinsurer. We assume that the preferences of the parties are given by distortion risk measures, which are equivalent to dual utilities. By maximizing the dual utility of the insurer and jointly solving the optimal insurance and reinsurance contracts, it is found that a layering insurance is optimal, with every layer being borne by one of the three agents. We also show that reinsurance encourages more insurance, and is welfare improving for the economy. Furthermore, it is optimal for the insurer to charge the maximum acceptable insurance premium to the policyholder. This paper also considers three other variants of the optimal insurance/reinsurance models. The first two variants impose a limit on the reinsurance premium so as to prevent insurer to reinsure all its risk. An optimal solution is still layering insurance, though the insurer will have to retain higher risk. Finally, we study the effect of competition by permitting the policyholder to insure its risk with an insurer, a reinsurer, or both. The competition from the reinsurer dampens the price at which an insurer could charge to the policyholder, although the optimal indemnities remain the same as the baseline model. The reinsurer will however not trade with the policyholder in this optimal solution.     

The impact of abusive supervision and co-worker support on hospitality and tourism student employees’ turnover intentions in Ecuador

Ram (2015. Hostility or hospitality? A review on violence, bullying and sexual harassment in the tourism and hospitality industry. Current Issues in Tourism. doi:10.1080/13683500.2015.1064364) posits that violence and harassment are areas of concern within the hospitality industry, and scholarly interest in abusive supervision in the workplace has grown since the last decade. This study extends Ram's (2015. Hostility or hospitality? A review on violence, bullying and sexual harassment in the tourism and hospitality industry. Current Issues in Tourism. doi:10.1080/13683500.2015.1064364) assertion by examining the effect of abusive supervision experiences on student employees’ turnover intentions in a hospitality and tourism context in a high power distance culture, Ecuador. The results showed that abusive supervision was positively related to turnover intentions, and its effect was stronger than co-worker support, with the abusive supervision–turnover intentions relationship being fully mediated by perceived organizational support (POS). In addition, co-worker emotional support was found to attenuate the negative effects of abusive supervision on POS. All in all, the findings highlight the roles of POS in explaining the relation between abusive supervision and turnover intentions and co-worker emotional support in buffering the negative effect of abusive supervision. The important role of culture is discussed.     

税法与会计规范的融合性思考

税法和会计规范有其各自的目标、原则、业务规范,两者之间本质性的差异应该长期存在并且可以合理地扩大,而两者之间形式上或时间上的差异应该缩小并且最终消除。税务会计是两者之间的有效沟通桥梁。